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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still